Monday, March 14, 2011

Redistricting: Phil Bryant's albatross or just a small bump?

Redistricting. One of those chores everyone hates doing but has to be done because as Clarion-Ledger columnist Sid Salter so aptly described it yesterday:

"It's about protecting the "good" precincts and getting rid of the "bad" precincts. It's also about using the process in a self-serving, crassly political manner to "carve out" potential or declared challengers in the next election to avoid the costs of a contested re-election bid. At the political DNA level, redistricting for incumbent lawmakers is about getting re-elected."

By now you know the plot: the House passed a plan written by Democrats later killed by the Senate. Lieutenant Governor Phil Bryant empaneled a committee split down the middle between Republicans and Democrats. The committee approved a plan creating a gerrymandered but majority-black district for Hattiesburg. Mr. Bryant tried to substitute his own plan but it failed last week as the Senate passed the committee plan.

Last week's events were a huge fiasco for Mr. Bryant as they called into question his ability to lead the state as well as his own party. The real story last week was not about one vote or the Senate killing the House plan even though it was all the media covered. The redistricting unraveling began when Mr. Bryant assembled the committee. Mr. Bryant could have told the House to assemble a more bi-partisan committee or else he would follow Mr. McCoy's example and appoint only a token Democrat but chose not to do so. Sun-Tzu's maxim that every battle is won or lost before its even fought applies to politics as well as war and redistricting fights are no exception. Mr. Bryant sowed the seeds for this debacle when he handed control of the committee to Republicans and Democrats.

Numerous sources tell JJ what happened next was easy to predict. Senator Hob Bryan ran rings around the rest of the committee. More than a few lobbyists said Mr. Bryan "is so intellectually superior to most Senators" that he had them eating out of his hand when the maps were drawn. Other sources said the Burton plan was really the Bryan plan as he co-opted the Republican chairman while the plan was created even though Mr. Burton said "it had his fingerprints all over it". The Lieutenant Governor was strangely absent while the committee did its work.

The result of Mr. Bryant's negligence and Mr. Bryan's persistence was a plan Democrats found they could easily support while many Republicans were forced to suddenly oppose a plan produced by a Republican chairman- a dilemma that should have never happened yet did happen thanks to Mr. Bryant's, and I'll use the term again, negligence.

Negligence? What exactly do you mean, Kingfish? Simple. Mr. Bryant appoints the committee chairman. That is one of the perks of being a Lieutenant Governor. He could have made it real clear to Mr. Burton what was expected of him. He probably could have solved the lame duck problem by obtaining support from Billy Hewes and Tate Reeves to tell him regardless of who succeeded Mr. Bryant, the winner will hold him accountable. If Mr. Bryant was a leader in the mold of say, Buddy Newman, the plan would have already been drawn up and handed to Burton with the orders "Here it is, hold your hearings, make your findings, then produce this map." Mr. Bryant and his represen-tatives could have been involved with the drawing up of the plan from the beginning, thus ensuring a more favorable outcome. A committee chairman ignoring a leader of his chamber in such a manner would have never happened under Newman, Tim Ford, Brad Dye, or even Amy Tuck....... or Sillers.

However, Mr. Bryant did none of these things. He handed the ball off to a bi-partisan committee, ignored its work, then discovered too late the committee drew a map that not only did he not like but one that would also cause problems for him in his own party. Mr. Burton and his committee completely blew off the Lieutenant Governor and did an end run around him as the Burton-Bryan plan passed the Senate. Mr. Bryant is undoubtedly hoping to save face in a conference committee scrum where the whole redistricting mess will eventually land. The defining moment took place during the debate: Democrats praised the plan from the floor of the Senate while only a few Republicans meekly opposed it.

More than a few Republican insiders are questioning Mr. Bryant's ability to lead or even count votes. The most common statement made last week about the redistricting mess was "How can Mr. Bryant deal with the legislature as Governor when he can't even control it as Lieutenant Governor" or "Does he even know what is going on in his own chamber?" Serious questions. The Lieutenant Governor enjoys much more power over the legislature than does the Governor. Barbour's legislative success is due to three things: His ability to use the special session rules in his favor, the use of the Senate to counteract the House, and is ability to count votes (which in turn depends on knowing everything that goes on in the legislature). Governor Musgrove found out how weak the office really is despite being a former Senator, former Lieutenant Governor, and Democrat as the legislature repeatedly ran roughshod over him. Mr. Bryant looked more like Mr. Musgrove last week than he did Mr. Musgrove's successor.

Mr. Bryant can recover from this episode and is the front-runner in the race for Governor. His opponent's candidacy has been a well-kept secret in Mississippi so far this year. Mr. Dennis made no public moves to exploit last week to its advantage as he is apparently following another maxim of politics: Don't get involved when your opponent is hanging himself. While much of this story is inside political baseball stuff, the fact remains any successful gubernatorial candidate is going to need the help of the "insiders" as well as their local organizations, fund-raising, and get out the vote operations. Only time will tell if the redistricting ruckus last week is a small bump in the road or an albatross for the Lieutenant Governor.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Question -- it was my understanding that both the House and the Senate contracted with lawyers to help with redistricting. What do you know about that? Who were they? How were they selected?

Anonymous said...

Never heard of a committee chair not being on the same page with who appointed him. Did Phil give Terry too much credit?

Kingfish said...

Who knows. Here they come. Had a friend accuse me this afternoon of trying to help the Democrats. I kid you not.

Anonymous said...

small bump

Kingfish said...

And the spin job is out over at Y'all.

Anonymous said...

I just want to complain about all the wasted hours thats been spent because of politics.

Anonymous said...

Heard Burton was in line to head medicade when Phil becomes governor, do you think this has marred that??

Anonymous said...

It'd be funny if the legislature hired lawyers to help them . After all, there are no lawyers to be found at the legislature either elected or on staff,right?
I love how every issue is an opportunity to spread the money among " friends" and to avoid taking responsibility for any decision.

Anonymous said...

Friends don't let friends do redistricting. Small bump as long as the Republicans stand together on their plan. If they don't we are ALL screwed for another 10 years!



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